Shoigu’s Removal and the Instability of Putin’s Regime

But it will take months for many of these supplies to reach the frontline. Russia is taking advantage of this time gap by launching this offensive push, says Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, an expert in Russian multidimensional warfare at the London-based RUSI think-tank. “They believe that they have a window of opportunity during these next few months, and they will do the best to achieve more territorial gains,” he tells TIME. “It's clear that Ukraine is in a critical shortage of ammunition specifically and the most important part of military capabilities in this war is artillery.”

The physical sabotage campaign is part of a broader strategy that includes a flood of Russian propaganda and disinformation, increased espionage by Moscow and efforts to exert political influence in Europe to sow doubts about Ukraine’s military prospects and divisions within the NATO alliance, according to Western officials and regional analysts. “It’s very disturbing, and it’s not like Russia has finished this process. It’s still ongoing,” said Oleksandr Danylyuk of the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense and security think tank. “Russia is definitely at war with the West.”

H.A. Hellyer, senior associate fellow at Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, says the U.S. has been giving Israel “more or less a blank check” over the past seven months.